greybeta | Why Kerry will lose

Yep, another one of my fluffy opinion articles.

Major thanks to the sagely dinosaur edt for bringing this to my attention.

Blast away at my fallacies, my fine friends.

Why Kerry will lose
Daniel Tu

Senator John F. Kerry will lose the presidential election to President George W. Bush. Election watch parties across the nation will witness states turning blue and red, and the red number will be greater than two hundred seventy. I could cover my bases and say that I am only making my best estimate, but I will not cop out. I am going to make a prediction; therefore, I shall look like a complete fool or a complete genius. Let me share with you how I came to know that Bush will win a second term.

With the incumbent bidding for a second term, the challenger must point out the deficiencies in the previous administration if he is to win. Kerry has actually proved quite competent in this regard. Bush has severely stretched our international relations with our conduct in the war against terrorism. No Child Left Behind and Social Security face grave dangers. Our economy watches gas prices rise to match the staggering pace at which our national debt grows.

Yet, these attacks fall right into the trap that the Bush campaign has laid out. No matter how much the Kerry campaign slings mud, the Bush campaign has the perfect parry. Bush uses September 11th to wipe out any argument that Kerry musters. If Kerry criticizes Bush, then Bush can claim the Kerry fails his patriotic duty. On the other hand, if Kerry concurs with Bush then he isn’t any different from the president.

President Bush may be an idiot, but he’s also a fine salesman. His message is clear and simple: I’m here to protect America. Bush works hard to avoid fighting wars on the home front. Bush comes out strongly on social issues like abortion and gay marriage rights because those issues are important to a significant amount of voters. Bush knows Americans tend to believe something that they are told over and over.

Conversely, Kerry couldn’t sell a candy bar if his life depended on it. He or his policy makers certainly have good ideas, but Kerry himself has to convince America that he has the better plans. More importantly, Kerry has to be able to convince the media that he doesn’t flipflop on issues. Even if Kerry appeared more firm in his ideas, he wouldn’t be able to shake voters’ first impressions of him.

Third parties present another considerable factor, for they steal the extremists on both sides of the political spectrum. Michael Badnarik and Ralph Nader will seep away votes from the Republican and Democratic candidates, respectively. With his name out in the 2000 election, Nader’s notoriety will steal more votes from Kerry than Badnarik will steal from Bush. Nader will indirectly decide two presidential elections.

Strangely enough, the biggest reason that Kerry will lose the election is because his own party doesn’t want him to win the presidency. The donkey party cannot fully support Kerry when they have a better candidate waiting in the wings. Given a choice between the waffling Kerry and the junior senator from New York, Democrats would choose Hillary Rodham Clinton in a heartbeat. So, the specter of Bill Clinton looms large over the Democrats.

All these little factors conclusively add up to a win for the elephant party. Remember, in an election as close as this, tiny differences go a long way. Unlike Kerry, Bush commands stronger support from his party and the media believes that the Republicans have a clearer platform. I’ve heard that he who hesitates loses, and Kerry hesitated.